Book Review

Just read an interesting book synopsis, though I will disagree on it. I think there will be a continuing boom in the next 30 or so years because:

• China growth + economic boom is once in a millennium
  
• India growth + economic boom is once in a millennium
• Existing challenges such as poverty, food shortage, climate change will mean a drastic change in human behaviour and possibly culture, which can only be resolved via one way: science and technology. In human history major advances in science and technology is followed by economic growth and increase in quality of life
• Rapid development of some countries, especially China and India, will demand a lot of natural resources.
  
• Surge of middle-income families world-wide lead to demand of consumer products and spurring industrial growth

Also, one of the underlying theory for the next depression in the book is because of the 'cycle' of economic downturn. I do not believe in any exact and repetitive timing for economic cycles. 3 events of commodity peak in 1920, 1951 and 1980 does not mean the next will happen in 2010 - if it rains last Friday, Sunday and Tuesday, does not mean it will rain on the following Thursday. Just like the complicated climate system on earth, the economic cycle is subjected to many causes and inter-dependence like consumer confidence, wars, co-operation between blocs of nations, etc.

That said, I do believe human civilication is nearing the peak of its cycle. The pendulum is almost at the end of the side on science and technology development, economic prosperity and concerted effort to increase the quality of life. As a result, there is serious damage to Earth's ecosystem, unprecedented divide of the rich and poor, having satisfied basic human motivation (food, shelter, security, etc) and intense, isolated activities there is loss of contentment in life causing spiritual chasm to appear.

Here is the link to the synopsis again - http://www.hsdent.com/tgca_pr.pdf